What are Pierre Poilievre’s chances of defeating Justin Trudeau? Right now, not good

Ottawa MP Pierre Poilievre was elected as the new Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) leader last night, and many Canadians are already wondering about the likelihood of him defeating Justin Trudeau in the next federal election, which may only take place in 2025, due to the Liberal-NDP coalition.

According to the latest federal voting intentions poll in Canada by Léger, which was published on Aug. 10, Trudeau and the Liberal Party (33%) are leading the Conservatives (28%) in support by 5 points. This is exactly the same level of support for both parties when, back in March, Léger also polled Canadians about the likelihood that they would vote Conservative with Pierre Poilievre as leader instead of interim leader Candice Bergen. (At the time, 41% of CPC supporters felt that Poilievre was the best candidate to take over as party leader — almost identical to the result in last month’s poll, 42%.)

While support for the Conservatives increased 2 points (from 28% to 30%) with Poilievre as party leader, support for the Liberals also increased 1 point to 34%. The 2 points gained by the Conservatives likely came from the PPC, who saw a reduction in support by the same amount; the point gained by the Liberals likely came from the NDP, who saw their support decrease from 22% to 21%.

	CPC with Candice Bergen as leader	CPC with Pierre Poilievre as leader
LPC	33%	34%
CPC	28%	30%
NDP	22%	21%
BQ	8%	8%
PPC	5%	3%
GPC	3%	3%

If this previous polling is telling, then in Léger’s first national poll with Poilievre as leader, which should be released later this month, we should see a similar percent of PPC support going to the Conservative Party, however not significant enough to jeopardize Trudeau or the Liberal Party’s chances of winning the next election, at least in the short term. Of course, the polling will change over the next few years, or however much time we have until the next election.

One of Pierre Poilievre’s biggest criticisms of the Trudeau government has been inflation, which in July saw a decrease for the first time since the start of the pandemic. The Bank of Canada has projected that inflation will likely only return to 2% by the end of 2024. If the next election does only end up taking place in 2025, then time may work in Trudeau’s favour.

Either way, we will continue to monitor the polling.

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