Turns out Trudeau’s unpopular snap election in 2021 was a very smart move for the Liberals

Looking back at the decision by Justin Trudeau to call a snap election in 2021, and considering where the Liberals are polling now, it’s become very clear that it was a smart political move in hindsight.

As 338Canada’s Philippe J. Fournier points out below, Trudeau would now be entering the 2023 election campaign ahead of the hypothetical election on October 16, 2023. According to current projections, the Conservatives are polling at 38%, with a 98% probability of winning an election, including a 65% probability of winning a majority government.

In the alternate universe where the federal Liberals did not call a snap election in 2021, we would be heading into a *scheduled* election campaign soon, with a vote on October 16, 2023.

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) August 20, 2023

When Justin Trudeau called the election on Aug. 15, 2021, a Léger poll 3 days earlier measured support for the Liberals at 35%, just 1 point below majority territory of 36%. He lost support throughout the campaign, eventually winning a minority government with 33% of the popular vote.

While the Liberals’ current projection of 28% support is not optimistic for Justin Trudeau, he at least has the next 25 months to rebuilt in order to make up the support he’s lost since the beginning of the previous election cycle. The next federal election in Canada is scheduled to take place on or before October 20, 2025.

According to a recent study by the Angus Reid Institute, 33% of Canadians approve of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, 5 points lower than the percentage of Canadians who have a favourable opinion of Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre (38%).

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