The Liberals could win a majority with 36% of the popular vote

According to polling experts Jean-Marc Leger and Philippe J. Fournier, 36% of the popular vote seems to be the magic number that would allow Justin Trudeau and the Liberals to achieve a majority in the Sept. 20 election. Fournier’s website 338Canada currently has the Liberal Party of Canada with 34.5% of the popular vote in their federal vote projection, which would result in the Liberals falling short of a majority. The Conservative Party of Canada is projected to receive 30.6% of the popular vote.

The 36% threshold is based on regional daily polling data, and, as Jean-Marc Leger (co-founder and president of Leger) points out, depends on the performance of the Conservatives in certain ridings.

“This 36% target for the Liberal Party is the key figure for the campaign. This may move depending on the Conservative performance but it remains the main objective of the LPC.”

Cette cible de 36% pour le Parti Libéral est le chiffre clé de la campagne. Cela peut bouger en fonction de la performance conservatrice mais il demeure l’objectif principal du PLC. https://t.co/0AwNlEQ4aK

— Jean-Marc Leger (@JeanMarcLeger1) August 19, 2021

When Justin Trudeau won the federal election in 2015, he secured a majority with 39.47% of the popular vote. In the last federal election in 2019, he won a minority with 33.12% of the popular vote, below the Conservatives who achieved 34.34%.

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