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Léger: “The Quebec election will be tighter than expected”

The president of the most accurate polling firm in the country believes Legault’s sizable lead will not hold. Here’s why.

In a comment last month on the Quebec election, Léger President Jean-Marc Léger said that, despite what current polling indicated, the race will end up being tighter than expected.

The latest surveys by Léger and the Angus Reid Institute have François Legault and the Coalition Avenir Québec leading with 42% and 35% support, respectively. Qc125 currently projects a majority victory for Legault and the CAQ, winning between 82 and 106 seats — 63 are needed for a majority — at above 99% certainty.

Léger referred to voters in Quebec as cyclothymics — people whose moods are less stable, with more ups and downs — therefore making predicting elections more difficult. Voters in the rest of Canada, according to Léger, are more loyal, unlike Quebecers who tend to fall in love with a new leader during each election campaign.

“Elections in English Canada are easier to predict because the vote is more stable and voters are more loyal. Quebecers are cyclothymics. At each election, they fall in love with a leader (Bouchard, Dumont, Layton, Trudeau, Blanchet, Legault). Who will be the next one?”

—Jean Marc Léger
Léger: “The Quebec election will be tighter than expected”

The provincial election in Quebec is scheduled for Oct. 3.

This article was originally published on July 11 and updated on Aug. 28, 2022.

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