Here’s why O’Toole’s weak debate performance could actually hurt Trudeau

According to Bryan Breguet from TOO CLOSE TO CALL, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole delivered a weak performance in last night’s French debate, coming in in last place, while the winners in Quebec and Ontario were Yves-François Blanchet and Justin Trudeau, respectively.

However, Breguet has come up with a scenario whereby a weak debate performance by Erin O’Toole could actually help Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois in Quebec and, in turn, hurt Justin Trudeau and the Liberals — which of course actually helps Conservatives overall. This has to do with the fact that if O’Toole fails to impress Quebecers due to a weak debate performance, support for the Bloc among anti-Trudeau voters would increase. Conversely, increased support for the Conservatives in Quebec would further split the blue vote, which would be advantageous to the Liberals.

Of course, we know that Trudeau polled very well in Ontario following the debate, which could also hurt the Conservatives, so this is all theoretical. But it’s still interesting to see how different scenarios could have unlikely outcomes in this election.

The weird thing for O'Toole is that losing tonight will likely help the Bloc and hurt Trudeau and the Liberals. So it might actually help O'Toole!

That's what happens when you use a fucked up electoral system.

— Bryan Breguet (@2closetocall) September 9, 2021

Following the first French-language debate, Bryan Breguet confirmed that the leaders who performed the best were Yves-François Blanchet and Justin Trudeau, while the leaders who performed the worst were Erin O’Toole and, especially, Jagmeet Singh.

The English-language debate will take place tonight on CBC at 9 p.m. EST.

To check your voter registration status and for more information about the forthcoming vote, please visit the Elections Canada website.

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