Advanced Poker Math: Calculating Odds and Pot Odds

Poker is a game that requires strategy, concentration and good analytical skills. It also requires some math skills. 

It doesn’t matter whether the player chooses online poker or more traditional settings, they all use math to calculate odds of winning. They use it to improve and adapt their strategy during a game.

How do they do it? How can you calculate your odds as well? 

Read on to find out how you can improve your poker technique using probability and simple math.

What is probability? 

Advanced poker players use probability to increase their odds of winning. 

But what is probability? How does it actually work? 

In a nutshell, probability helps determine how likely something is to happen.

It is a branch of mathematics that mixes both math and stats to determine the odds of an event happening. 

In poker, probability is used by advanced players to determine their odds of winning and losing. They rely on it to adapt their gaming strategy and to decide on a betting amount. 

Probability is used in many different sectors and in many different contexts. It can help individuals assess the level of risk in a situation and plan accordingly. 

How does probability in poker work? 

Probability can be used in different ways when playing poker. However, the most common way to use it is to determine one’s odds of landing a winning hand. 

Let’s look at an example. 

There are 52 cards in a standard poker deck. If a player wants to find out their odds of being dealt a heart card they will divide the number of heart cards by the number of cards. 

There are 13 hearts and 52 cards. When 13 is divided by 52, you get 0.25 or ¼ .

If you multiply the result by 100, you get a percentage. In this case, players have a 25% chance of being dealt a heart card. 

To use probability in poker, it is important to know the number of cards in a standard poker deck. There are 52 cards in total that are divided into four suits. 

These four suits are clubs, diamonds, hearts and spades. Each suit is made up of 13 cards. 

Within each suit, there are three face cards. Poker players know that face cards include King, Queen and Jack cards. 

Some decks include Joker cards that can be used as replacements for lost cards.

Calculating pot odds 

Let’s refresh our memory very quickly. What are pot odds? 

They represent the ratio between the size of the total pot and the size of the bet facing a player. 

By calculating pot odds, players can assess whether it’s best to fold or call. They can also choose to raise if they want their opponent to decide. 

Some players might be tempted to follow their gut or make impulsive decisions instead of calculating pot odds. However, advanced players always calculate their odds before making their move.

So, how can you do the same? It’s pretty easy actually. 

1) Determine the sum of the pot size with your potential call 

Before you start calculating the odds, you need to know what the final pot size will look like. How much is the pot size now? 

How much will it be if you decide to call? 

For example, if the total pot size is $150 but will be $200 if you decide to call, then do not calculate your odds based on $150 but on $200. 

In other words, use the final pot size sum with your potential call in your calculations. Not the current pot size without your potential call. 

2) Divide your call by the size of the pot 

For example, if you need to put in $50 to call and the final pot size is $200 with your call, divide $50 by $200. 

The result will be 0.25 in this scenario. Keep your result in mind for the next calculations. 

3) Multiply by 100 

You will now have a percentage to work with. Simply multiply by 100 the result you got in the step above. 

For example, multiply 0.25 by 100. You will get 25%. 

In short, if you want to make some profit, you will need to win more than 25% of the time. 

If your hand is excellent, these odds might be worth taking. Otherwise, it might not be interesting.

Final thoughts

This article explained how probability in poker works and how players can calculate pot odds to inform their gaming decisions. 

Calculating odds is an important gaming aspect for advanced and professional poker players. 

They need to know what their odds are to improve their gaming strategy, diminish their losses and increase their chances of winning. 

By following the steps listed in this article, you can now calculate your own poker odds during a game just like professional players do.