The real winners of the 2021 election in Canada were the pollsters

A few days after the election that the majority of Canadians didn’t want, which then resulted in Justin Trudeau and the Liberals winning another minority government, it’s become more and more clear that the real winners of the 2021 election in Canada were the pollsters. As you can see below, the majority of the polling companies in Canada polled within the standard margin of error of +/- 3% of the final popular vote result, with Leger again being the most accurate polling firm in the country, as it was in 2019.

Leger’s final poll results were within 1% (an average of .77) of the official election results for each party, except for the NDP, who they overestimated by 1.3%. Leger was also the most accurate polling company during the election for results in Quebec, Ontario and B.C., and one of the only pollsters to predict a popular vote win for the Conservatives. Their final poll result from Sept. 18 can also be seen below.

Leger is ONCE AGAIN the most accurate polling firm! We presented the most accurate results for the 2021 federal election due to the quality of our LEO web panel and the expertise of our 600 employees. ????
Learn more ➡️ https://t.co/bTHSTgJom8 #elxn44 #cdnpoli #polcan pic.twitter.com/UJaA0P9Jor
— Léger (@leger360) September 23, 2021

The real winners of the 2021 election in Canada were the polling companies, with Leger once again being the most accurate

We’d like to thank all pollsters in Canada, as well as websites like 338Canada and the CBC Poll Tracker, which calculate seat projections based on the results of individual polls across the country; this then allows them to calculate the parties’ odds of winning the election. Both were correct in predicting that the most likely scenario in the 2021 election was a Liberal minority.

For the complete poll results and methodology from Leger’s final 2021 election poll, please visit their website.

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