A new Nanos Poll has the Liberals winning the next election by two points

This is the first poll in over a week to project a Liberal popular vote win.

According to 338Canada, a new Nanos election poll from the weekend has the Liberals back in front of the Conservatives, by two points. This is the first poll in over a week showing the Liberals ahead in popular vote intention.

338Canada’s Philippe J. Fournier also referenced a new Abacus Data poll showing a 32-32 tie between the Liberals and the Conservatives, confirming that it’s “hard to see any real momentum one way or another.”

A new Nanos Poll has the Liberals winning the next election by two points

Fournier still has the Conservatives winning the next election with 59% probability, but this could of course change should more polls continue to swing in the Liberals’ favour. The Conservatives are up 145-133 in the corresponding seat projection for the upcoming Sept. 20 election. Both parties are well below the 170 needed for a majority.

When Justin Trudeau won the federal election in 2015, he secured a majority with 39.47% of the popular vote. In the last federal election in 2019, Trudeau won a minority with 33.12% of the popular vote, below the Conservatives who achieved 34.34%.

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