Conservatives need 37% of the popular vote for a majority; now at 33.5%

While the benchmark for a Liberal majority in the upcoming election was determined to be 36% of the popular vote, it turns out that Erin O’Toole and the Conservatives will need to obtain 37% to achieve their own majority. According to 338Canada, the Conservatives are projected to win 33.5% of the popular vote, slightly higher than the Liberals, at 32.1%.

The probability of a Conservative victory in the election is now 54%.

Currently, the Conservatives are projected to win 142 seats in the election on Sept. 20, significantly lower than the 170 needed for a majority. The probability of a Conservative-majority government is 4%, according to the CBC Poll Tracker.

Let's talk conservative majority scenarios.

Could it happen? Absolutely. Using current regional brackets, the CPC needs ~37% nationally. Mainstreet & EKOS have already measured the CPC that high, let's see what other pollsters will show this week.https://t.co/mP6ZDZUzPj pic.twitter.com/wGeTHUusm9
— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) August 30, 2021

Conservatives need 37% of the popular vote for a majority; now at 33.5%

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