The Liberals are projected to win a majority in Canada’s next federal election

According to 338Canada, the Liberals are projected to win Canada’s next federal election and form a majority government. The odds of a Liberal victory are now 99%.

The Liberals are currently projected to win 193 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 122 seats and the Bloc Québécois with 18 seats. 172 seats are needed for a majority.

The election will take place on April 28.

338Canada🍁federal update | April 12, 2025

🔴LPC 193
————–majority: 172 seats
🔵CPC 122
⚜️BQ 18
🟠NDP 8
🟢GPC 2

Details here → https://t.co/IQaKoGJItT

Find your riding here → https://t.co/W797rPuEpv pic.twitter.com/ZRJywQKVrt

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) April 12, 2025

A new study by the Angus Reid Institute has found that Mark Carney leads Pierre Poilievre by 65 points as the best candidate to handle Trump’s trade war.

According to 338Canada, the odds of the Conservatives winning a majority in the next federal election were over 99% on Jan. 19. Léger President Jean-Marc Léger attributed the Liberals’ surge in the polls to the “Mark Carney effect.”

Odds of CPC majority, Jan. 19, 2025 = >99%

Odds of CPC majority, March 16, 2025 = 13%

338 Sunday Update ↓ https://t.co/RJBPm094JE

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) March 16, 2025

---

For our latest in news, please visit the News section.