The Liberals are projected to win a majority in Canada’s next federal election

According to 338Canada, the Liberals are projected to win Canada’s next federal election and form a majority government. The odds of a Liberal victory are now 98%.

The Liberals are currently projected to win 185 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 126 seats and the Bloc Québécois with 24 seats. 172 seats are needed for a majority.

The election will take place on April 28.

338Canada🍁federal update | March 25, 2025

🔴LPC 185
—————majority: 172 seats
🔵CPC 126
⚜️BQ 24
🟠NDP 7
🟢GPC 1

Liberals Keep Climbing, Poilievre Trails Carney as Preferred PM ↓ https://t.co/HLBu3qR8fh

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) March 25, 2025

According to a study by the Angus Reid Institute, support for the Liberals has increased by 30 points in the last three months.

Liberal Party leader Mark Carney leads CPC leader Pierre Poilievre in net favourability by 43 points, as net favourability of Poilievre reaches a new all-time low. Carney is also considered to be the best candidate to handle Trump’s trade war, ahead of Poilievre by 25 points.

According to 338Canada, the odds of the Conservatives winning a majority in the next federal election were over 99% on Jan. 19. Léger President Jean-Marc Léger attributed the Liberals’ surge in the polls to the “Mark Carney effect.”

Odds of CPC majority, Jan. 19, 2025 = >99%

Odds of CPC majority, March 16, 2025 = 13%

338 Sunday Update ↓ https://t.co/RJBPm094JE

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) March 16, 2025

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