5 factors working against Pierre Poilievre ahead of Canada's next election

While Canada may only see an election in October 2025, one could come sooner rather than later. Here are five factors that will work against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives when the time comes.

1. Poilievre’s dwindling favourability

Pierre Poilievre’s net favourability continues to sink lower and lower. According to the Angus Reid Institute, net favourability of Pierre Poilievre sits at -20%, its lowest point since December 2022. Just 36% of Canadians say they have a positive opinion of Poilievre, while 56% say their opinion of the Conservative Party leader is negative. More Canadians seem to be realizing that rage-baiting and empty slogans aren’t what Canada needs.

2. Foreign interference

Pierre Poilievre continues to forgo the security clearance required to learn how foreign interference is threatening our democracy. He does this against the wishes of a large majority of Canadians — including 60% of Conservatives — who want Poilievre to get the security clearance required to read the NSICOP report on how foreign interference has infiltrated Canadian politics. Ironically, Poilievre’s failure to seek security clearance makes the Conservatives look like they have something to hide.

Poilievre has also been silent on Russian right-wing propaganda in Canada after a report revealed that far-right influencers were on the receiving end of Kremlin kickbacks.

3. The PPC effect

Whether you like it or not, the political climate in Canada has shifted to the right, as it has in much of the world. Once Maxime Bernier and the PPC start campaigning again, the Conservatives will see a decrease in their support as their base realizes that Pierre Poilievre isn’t right-wing enough on the issues they care about. The PPC received 5% support in the 2021 federal election, and roughly 70% of that temporarily sits with the Conservatives.

4. Pierre Poilievre has a woman problem

Pierre Poilievre is the least popular federal party leader among women, based on both favourability and net favourability. Currently, just 29% of women say they have a positive opinion of Poilievre, while 59% say their opinion of the Conservative Party leader is unfavourable — and that was before the American presidential election. Considering Donald Trump’s low favourability of just 13% among Canadian women, positive opinions of Poilievre could sink even lower as parallels will inevitably be drawn between Trump’s forthcoming administration in the U.S. and Conservative policies to come in Canada.

5. Trudeau is an excellent campaigner

Justin Trudeau has proven time and time again that he’s an excellent campaigner, even when the polls are against him. He’s won the past three elections, and as long as Canada’s economy continues to perform well, his message of inclusivity and positive politics could resonate once again. One of the main benefits of being a centrist party is the ability to appeal to everyone, not just those on the left or right. A plurality of Canadians identify as centrist — that’s who the Liberals’ base is. After Trump’s re-election, voters may see a centrist party as a balanced alternative to extremist politics.

“Net favourability of Pierre Poilievre has reached its lowest point in almost two years.”

Pierre Poilievre’s poor favourability will cost the Conservatives come election time https://t.co/OCw5nx5IYB
— Cult MTL (@cultmtl) October 28, 2024

5 factors working against Pierre Poilievre ahead of Canada’s next election

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