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2022 Quebec election: The probability of a CAQ majority is above 99%

For Legault to lose the election at this point would be “unprecedented.”

According to Qc125, the probability of François Legault and the CAQ winning a majority in the 2022 Quebec election is currently above 99%.

François Legault is projected to win 41% (± 5%) of the popular vote and 98 (84–105) seats, with 63 needed for a majority.

The Quebec Liberal Party sits in second place, projected to win 17 seats with 16% of the popular vote, followed by Québec Solidaire with 9 seats (15%), the Parti Québécois with 1 seat (12%) and the Conservative Party of Quebec with 0 seats (15%).

A quick note on strategic voting

Based on current polling, the Conservative Party of Quebec and Parti Québécois are projected to receive almost 30% of the vote, only to win 1 seat collectively. If your goal is to reduce Legault’s chances of another majority, then voting for these two parties is utterly pointless.

According to a statement by Qc125’s Philippe J. Fournier last month, it would be unprecedented for François Legault to lose the election, considering how strong his lead is.

“Only the CAQ can defeat the CAQ at this point. Never has a party so far ahead, two months before the election, subsequently lost. So it’s not impossible, but there’s no precedent.”

—Philippe J. Fournier

The 2022 Quebec election will take place on Oct. 3.

2022 Quebec election: The probability of a CAQ majority is above 99%

This article was originally published on Aug. 4 and updated on Sept. 25, 2022.

For more on the provincial election, please visit Élections Québec.

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