2022 Quebec election: The probability of a CAQ majority is above 99%

According to Qc125, the probability of François Legault and the CAQ winning a majority in the 2022 Quebec election is currently above 99%.

François Legault is projected to win 39% (± 5%) of the popular vote and 92 (77–102) seats, with 63 needed for a majority.

The Quebec Liberal Party sits in second place, projected to win 21 seats with 16% of the popular vote, followed by Québec Solidaire with 9 seats (15%), the Parti Québécois with 3 seats (15%) and the Conservative Party of Quebec with 0 seats (14%).

La projection finale Qc125…

Il y a 125 circonscriptions, incluant 11 comtés enclins et 16 pivots. Impossible que la projection soit *parfaite*, mais elle devrait être proche *si* les sondages touchent la cible demain.https://t.co/zT3ZpPIxnm#polqc #quebec2022 pic.twitter.com/ypIZH52QJL

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) October 3, 2022

According to a statement by Qc125’s Philippe J. Fournier last month, it would be unprecedented for François Legault to lose the election, considering how strong his lead is.

“Only the CAQ can defeat the CAQ at this point. Never has a party so far ahead, two months before the election, subsequently lost. So it’s not impossible, but there’s no precedent.”

—Philippe J. Fournier

The 2022 Quebec election will take place on Oct. 3.

Les détails seront disponibles plus tard, mais quelques réactions préliminaires:

– Seule la CAQ peut défaire la CAQ à ce point-ci. Jamais un parti aussi loin en avance à 2 mois du scrutin n'a ensuite perdu. Donc, pas impossible, mais aucun précédent.https://t.co/2LRgiwSpCe

— Philippe J. Fournier (@338Canada) August 3, 2022

This article was originally published on Aug. 4 and updated on Oct. 2, 2022.

For more on the provincial election, please visit Élections Québec.

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