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Conservatives 34% (+3), Liberals 30% (-3), NDP 24% (+3): LEGER

The Conservatives need 37% for a majority.

According to the latest federal election polling in Canada by Leger, the Liberals have decreased three more points to 30% in overall voting attention, while the Conservatives and NDP have both increased three points to 34% and 24%, respectively. The poll was conducted from Aug. 27 to 30. The last federal voting intentions update from Leger took place between Aug. 20 to 22.

The Liberals have dropped six points since Justin Trudeau called the election on Aug. 15. According to the CBC Poll Tracker, there is an 8% probability that Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada will win a majority and a 53% probability that they will win the election.

According to Philip J. Fournier from 338Canada, the Conservatives need 37% of the popular vote to achieve a majority.

Conservatives 34% (+3), Liberals 30% (-3), NDP 24% (+3): LEGER

Other key findings:

  • “In the past week, 41% of Canadians say their opinion of Justin Trudeau has deteriorated, while 23% say their opinions of Erin O’Toole and Jagmeet Singh have improved
  • “56% of Canadians are dissatisfied with the Government of Canada, led by Justin Trudeau – an increase of 5 percentage points *. 
  • “When Canadians are asked which leader would make Canada’s best Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh tie at 23%, but Erin O’Toole is a close second (21%). 
  • “When Canadians are asked who will win the next Federal Election and form the next government: 
    • 39% say the Liberal Party (8 percentage points *) 
    • 28% say the Conservative Party (+10 percentage points *) 
    • 7% say the New Democratic Party (1 percentage point *)”

* Since Leger’s last survey, dated August 17, 2021.

For the complete results and methodology, please visit the Leger Marketing website.

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