Trudeau’s majority could all come down to Montreal

According to TOO CLOSE TO CALL’s Bryan Breguet, the desired electoral majority of Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada could be jeopardized in the Montreal region, where the Bloc Québécois “is close to regaining enough seats to crush the dreams of a majority for Trudeau.” Breguet also confirmed that the party could even have gains in the South Shore, reducing the number of seats obtained by the Liberals in 2019.

In the Montreal region, the Bloc is close to regaining enough seats (with potential gains on the south shore) to crush the dreams of a majority for Trudeau pic.twitter.com/GtwApHwPKl
— Bryan Breguet (@2closetocall) August 18, 2021

The majority of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals could all come down to Montreal.

The Liberals are currently below their 2019 levels in the Greater Toronto Area, and are fighting off the Conservatives and NDP in races in the Greater Vancouver Area as well.

Finally, thanks to much better BC numbers for the CPC and worse for the LPC, the GVA is now providing a lot more races. Liberals have to fight off both Tories and NDP. pic.twitter.com/roTFM3eYm1
— Bryan Breguet (@2closetocall) August 18, 2021

Brequet closed by confirming that the first week of the election has not been kind to Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party, and that the majority has become questionable.

“Bottom line, polls haven’t been particularly good for the Liberals since the election started. What looked like a fairly safe majority has now turned into a much more uncertain outcome. Still, Trudeau is overwhelmingly favoured to remain PM at this point.”
—Bryan Breguet

Justin Trudeau is currently expected to receive 35% of the popular vote, below the 36% threshold to put him in majority territory.

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