Liberals and Conservatives are now tied in federal voting intention

The primary shift has been Liberal votes switching to Conservative in Ontario.

According to 338Canada, the Liberals and Conservatives are now tied in federal voting intention, each projected to receive 32.5% of the popular vote.

The Liberals still have the edge in the overall seat projection with 141 seats, slightly above the Conservatives, at 133 seats. This explains why the Liberals are still the favourite to win the election, with a probability of 56.5%.

According to the CBC Poll Tracker, when Justin Trudeau called the election, the Liberals had a 51% chance of winning a majority; that number has now been reduced to 24%, following incredibly poor poll results across the board.

According to Philippe J. Fournier from 338Canada, the primarily shift in voting intention during this election has been Liberal votes switching to Conservative in Ontario, which is exactly what Erin O’Toole needs in order to win. Fournier also points out that, thankfully for Trudeau, it’s not a “generalized, country-wide slide” towards the Conservatives.

Liberals and Conservatives are now tied in federal voting intention

It’s safe to say that we can expect Trudeau to spend a lot of time in Ontario during the next three weeks, in order to convince those voters to come back to the Liberal side.


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